Spain are the stronger side on paper and the lean pick to reach the semi-finals.
Spain Form and Insights
Spain arrive at SoFi Stadium as one of the most complete teams in the tournament, having gone through five matches without conceding a single goal. Luis de la Fuente’s side topped their group, swept aside Austria 3-0 in the round of 32, and edged Portugal 1-0 in a tight last-16 Iberian derby to set up this quarter-final. Mikel Oyarzabal leads the attack as a key threat for this fixture, having contributed four goals and one assist so far — a record that makes him one of the tournament’s most dangerous finishers and a focal point for Belgium’s defence to solve. With a FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictor rating that puts Spain clearly stronger on paper, they enter Friday as deserved favourites.
- Goals scored: 1.8 per game
- Goals conceded: 0 per game
- Expected Goals: 2.02
- Expected Goals Conceded: 0.22
- Win rate: 80.0%
- Both teams score: 0% of games
- Clean sheets: 100.0% of games
Belgium Form and Insights
Belgium have taken a louder, more open road to the last eight under coach Rudi Garcia, blitzing New Zealand 5-1 in the group stage, edging Senegal after extra time in the round of 32, and then producing a commanding 4-1 dismantling of the United States in the round of 16. Romelu Lukaku — with three goals and one assist in the tournament — remains a world-class focal point whose finishing makes him a constant danger for any defence. Belgium’s willingness to score freely is their greatest strength, though they have also conceded more regularly than the elite sides still standing. Absences: none reported.
- Goals scored: 3.0 per game
- Goals conceded: 0.6 per game
- Expected Goals: 2.26
- Expected Goals Conceded: 0.65
- Win rate: 60.0%
- Both teams score: 60.0% of games
- Clean sheets: 40.0% of games
Head-to-Head Statistics
No World Cup head-to-head data is available for this fixture in our records, so the historical signal here is thin. There is a previous World Cup meeting — a 1986 quarter-final that Belgium won on penalties — which sits in national football memory, but it carries little predictive weight for a match involving an entirely different generation on both sides.
Spain
Belgium
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
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Our Prediction
Spain sit at 58% on AI Prediction Football probability estimates, with the draw at 24% and Belgium at 18%, a gap that reflects the Elo difference of over 200 points — translating plainly as Spain being significantly stronger on paper. Belgium’s attacking potency means the draw and even a Belgian upset are live risks that cannot be dismissed, particularly given their scoring form. The lean is Spain, but the 24% draw probability alone signals this is a fixture that could easily run deep into extra time.
Back Spain to win, but treat the draw as a genuine threat given Belgium’s ability to score and the natural tension of a quarter-final knockout.
Match Details
- Date11 Jul 2026
- Kick-off03:00 MYT
- CompetitionFIFA World Cup
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