Opta's pre-tournament simulations give Arsenal a 20.9% chance of winning the 2026-27 Champions League, making them the outright favourites as the league phase begins this week. Bayern Munich are second at 19.4%, with Manchester City third at 12.3%.
According to Opta, Arsenal are ranked the strongest team in the world by their power index, and 93.8% of simulations have them reaching the knockout rounds. Bayern lead all clubs in the league-phase standings across the simulations, with a 19.4% chance of finishing top of the table.
Barcelona and PSG round out the top five
Barcelona, who have not won the Champions League since 2015, are fourth in Opta's projections with an 8.2% title probability. Defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, who are chasing a third consecutive title, sit fifth at 7.1%.
PSG's odds dropped after they lost 1-2 at home to Monaco last week. Liverpool have a 6.1% chance of winning the trophy and a 13.3% chance of reaching the final, placing them ahead of Real Madrid, who are at 4.4%.
Matthaus names five contenders, questions Real Madrid
German legend Lothar Matthaus, writing in his personal column on 8 September, named five clubs as genuine title contenders: Arsenal, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich. He added a caveat about Real Madrid, saying they still need to build cohesion as a unit, pointing to their performance against Betis the previous weekend.
Matthaus also said that Manchester City, Liverpool and Atletico Madrid, who have home-ground advantage for the final, all have a chance of going all the way. He expects Dortmund to progress further in the competition than they did last season.
Manchester United, Inter and Aston Villa further back
Manchester United are given a 3.8% chance of winning the title, though Opta's model gives them a 37.6% chance of reaching the quarter-finals and an 18.4% chance of reaching the semi-finals. Inter Milan have a 3.6% title probability and an 8.7% chance of making the final.
Aston Villa are tenth in the odds at 2.0%, with Opta noting that several key players left the club in the summer window and their domestic form has been poor. Dortmund (1.8%), Sporting CP (1.4%), Roma (1.3%) and Como (1.2%) are the only other clubs with a title probability above 1.0%.
