France edge Spain in a tight semi-final call.
France Form and Insights
France arrive at Dallas Stadium on Bastille Day as a two-time world champion nation with a third title firmly in their sights. Didier Deschamps’ side have been relentless at this tournament, winning every match on their way to the last four — keeping a clean sheet through the knockout rounds before despatching Morocco 2-0 in the quarter-finals. Kylian Mbappé is the tournament’s most dangerous presence up front, having scored 8 goals and contributed 3 assists so far, and the FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictor gives France a slight lean at 38% to seal their place in the final.
- Goals scored: 2.6 per game
- Goals conceded: 0.2 per game
- Expected Goals: 1.87
- Expected Goals Conceded: 0.82
- Win rate: 100.0%
- Both teams score: 20.0% of games
- Clean sheets: 80.0% of games
Spain Form and Insights
Spain return to a World Cup semi-final for the first time since lifting the trophy in 2010, and Luis de la Fuente has called this match ‘a final before the final’ — a sign of how seriously La Roja respect the occasion. They progressed through a compact, disciplined campaign that featured a hard-fought 2-1 quarter-final victory over Belgium, sealed by Mikel Merino’s 88th-minute goal — the midfielder’s second decisive late intervention of the tournament and a key reason Spain are here. Their defence had gone the entire tournament without conceding before Belgium’s quarter-final equaliser, making Spain the more structured unit on paper even if France carry the stronger recent scoring trend.
- Goals scored: 2.2 per game
- Goals conceded: 0.2 per game
- Expected Goals: 2.0
- Expected Goals Conceded: 0.22
- Win rate: 100.0%
- Both teams score: 20.0% of games
- Clean sheets: 80.0% of games
Head-to-Head Statistics
There is no World Cup head-to-head record between these two sides to draw on. The broader competitive context, however, is significant: Spain won the most recent meeting between the teams in the Euro 2024 semi-finals and De la Fuente’s record against France in semi-finals across his career is notably strong.
France
Spain
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Our Prediction
The Elo ratings place both sides in the same elite bracket, separated by just 27 points, making this as closely matched as semi-finals get. France sit at 38%, Spain at 33%, and the draw at 29% — a spread that reflects genuine uncertainty, with AI Prediction Football leaning France as a narrow pick on the back of their superior scoring output across this tournament. The draw and a Spain win both remain live options, and a match of this weight between two sides of this quality could easily be settled by a single moment.
Back France to win, but keep stakes conservative — Spain’s defensive solidity and De la Fuente’s record in semi-finals against France mean the draw and a Spain victory are both firmly in play.
Match Details
- Date15 Jul 2026
- Kick-off03:00 MYT
- CompetitionFIFA World Cup
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