Senegal favoured to win at BMO Field in a Group I decider.
Senegal Form and Insights
Senegal arrive at BMO Field carrying the weight of a campaign that has promised much but delivered nothing in the standings yet. Coach Pape Thiaw’s side lost to France and Norway — two of the group’s toughest opponents — but scored in both matches, showing that the attacking threat is real. Ismaïla Sarr, with two goals in this tournament, is the player to watch: his directness and ability to drag defenders out of position could prove the decisive weapon against an Iraqi defence that has shipped seven goals in two group matches. No absences have been reported for Senegal ahead of this fixture, with the FIFA World Cup 2026 Predictor firmly pointing the Lions of Teranga as the stronger side.
- Goals scored: 1.6 per game
- Goals conceded: 2.0 per game
- Win rate: 20.0%
- Both teams score: 80.0% of games
- Clean sheets: 20.0% of games
Iraq Form and Insights
Iraq’s return to the World Cup stage for the first time since 1986 has been a bruising education, with defeats to Norway and France leaving Jesus Casas’s side pointless and with a goal difference of minus six. Their one tournament goal — Aymen Hussein’s header against Norway, created by Amir Al-Ammari’s cross — offered a brief moment of hope, but the Lions of Mesopotamia have struggled to hold defensive shape under sustained pressure. Senegal’s superior Elo rating tells the story plainly: this is a developing side facing a significantly stronger opponent, and Iraq need a near-perfect collective effort to take anything from this match. No absences have been reported for Iraq ahead of this Matchday 3 fixture.
- Goals scored: 0.6 per game
- Goals conceded: 2.0 per game
- Win rate: 20.0%
- Both teams score: 40.0% of games
- Clean sheets: 20.0% of games
Head-to-Head Statistics
Senegal and Iraq have no previous World Cup meetings on record, making this fixture a first between the two nations at the tournament. There is no H2H signal to lean on — only what each side has shown in Group I so far.
Senegal
Iraq
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
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Our Prediction
With a 66% win probability, Senegal are clearly the stronger side on paper, backed by an Elo advantage of 231 points and a more consistent scoring trend throughout the tournament. Iraq’s 13% chance of a win reflects the scale of the task, while the draw sits at 21% and cannot be dismissed if Senegal fail to convert their chances early. Using AI Prediction Football analysis as a guide, the lean is firmly on a Senegal victory, though Iraq’s resilience means the margin of confidence does not allow for complacency.
Back Senegal to win, as their superior squad quality and tournament scoring form make them the clear lean, though the 21% draw probability is a reminder to keep stakes measured.
Match Details
- Date27 Jun 2026
- Kick-off03:00 MYT
- CompetitionFIFA World Cup
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