With the arrival of the 2026 FIFA World Cup in the United States, Canada, and Mexico, the 2026 season is set to introduce significant uncertainty into the Ballon d’Or race.
Performances in major international tournaments often carry greater weight than club achievements, which means players who can deliver success for both club and country are naturally viewed as the strongest contenders.
Mbappé on Top, Haaland Close Behind
On December 30, 2025, betting agencies updated the latest odds for the 2026 Ballon d’Or. Topping the list is Real Madrid forward Kylian Mbappé. He has maintained outstanding scoring efficiency at Real Madrid.
With both the club and the French national team well positioned to compete for major titles, Mbappé is seen as having a near “lock” on the award should he secure enough high-profile trophies.
Ranked second is Erling Haaland. Norway’s unexpected qualification for the World Cup has significantly reduced its international disadvantage.
If Haaland can continue his dominant form with Manchester City and help Norway advance from the group stage, his chances in the Ballon d’Or race will rise considerably.
Kane Holds Firm, Yamal Faces Uncertainty
England striker Harry Kane holds third place. In red-hot form this season, Kane’s scoring output rivals that of the world’s elite forwards. With both his club and the England national team remaining highly competitive, he remains a strong contender.
Fourth is Spanish prodigy Lamine Yamal. Despite finishing second in this year’s Ballon d’Or, his position at fourth suggests bookmakers are relatively cautious. While Spain is among the favorites to win the World Cup, Yamal’s chances would diminish significantly if the team fails to lift the trophy.
Declan Rice Leads the Midfielders
Fifth on the list is Arsenal midfielder Declan Rice. He has become the core of Arsenal’s midfield and plays an increasingly important role for England as well.
If both Arsenal and England enjoy successful campaigns, Rice could emerge as a surprise Ballon d’Or contender. Notably, he is the highest-ranked midfielder on the list, highlighting the strong recognition he has earned.
Messi and Ronaldo Still in the Picture
Ranked joint seventh are four players: Lionel Messi, Bayern forward Michael Olise, Cristiano Ronaldo, and Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka.
Messi needs little introduction. He remains in excellent form at the club level and could still add multiple trophies. If he leads Argentina to a successful World Cup title defense, he may not necessarily win the Ballon d’Or, but his ranking would almost certainly be high. For Messi, this represents his final realistic opportunity to challenge for the award.
Olise and Saka, meanwhile, are standout representatives of the younger generation. With solid individual statistics and the potential to win major honors, their presence in the top ten comes as no surprise.
As for Ronaldo, the Portuguese forward’s focus will be on scoring as many goals as possible and helping Portugal achieve a strong World Cup run. For him, the Ballon d’Or race is still not entirely out of reach.
Overall, the destination of the 2026 Ballon d’Or will be closely tied to the course of the World Cup. Whether it is the stars in their prime or legendary veterans still chasing history, the final verdict is likely to remain unclear until the World Cup concludes and the dust finally settles.
